Nuclear war is coming, and only Brazilians can stop it!
To Gaston Bouthoul, Maestro ex-lectione
Aggression is aggression, and there is no justification for Russian actions in Ukraine, but now the nuclear war is not that far, and nobody seems to notice it. Many variables are starting the alarm, including the emergence of radical nationalism and militarism, domestic unrest, international belligerence, inflation everywhere, and erosion of global trust. One year after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, this seems not to be near the end, and things are getting worst.
Western countries and Russia are increasing their verbal and military hostilities, and the coming spring could be the beginning of the end of humanity if something is not done to stop it.
Brazilian diplomacy is trying to promote peace negotiations, pushing both sides to dialogue despite the atrocities committed. These countries are stuck in mutual recriminations that can devastate everyone. Thus, only Brazilians seem to notice the dangerous future and are pushing to avoid it.
Since the end of the Cold War, China and mainly Russia have tried to open a room in multilateral organizations, primarily the World Trade Organization and the United Nations, even via BRICS (powerful emerging economies). But, behind the war in Ukraine, there is a critical issue, the search for a reconfiguration of the world system as we know it.
The confrontation is not only about democracies versus authoritarian governments; it goes beyond that. Russians and Chinese have expected to be treated according to their gained position. However, the international order is firmly attached to the anglo-american one that gradually is fading away but continues to exist under the old rules. It seems contradictory due to the strong economic ties between Western countries, China, and Russia recently before the sanctions.
Russia, the country that started the aggression against Ukraine, and mainly the political elites, feel they have been excluded from the promise to be treated as equals by Europe and the United States after they embraced capitalism in the early nineties. Chinese, on the other side, have demanded a better position in the World Trade Organization according to its robust economy. Here there is a tug of war, international relations are full of interests, and these are defended as much as they can, and war is a way to push extremes.
However, Russians possess nuclear weapons, and this can be out of control for the most simple mistake, as has happened in several wars throughout human history. In this respect, Brazilians seem to understand the scenario very well. As Latin Americans, they have a worldview that allows them to understand both the western mindset and the “others” standpoint, trying to balance the two views to push for peace negotiations.
Brazilian diplomacy has been one of the most prestigious in the last century, and they have a vast record of helping to solve international confrontations. Itamaraty, the home of Brazilian diplomacy, is well-known everywhere. Likewise, they know it is better to have a lousy negotiation than a good confrontation. Latin America is one of the most violent regions worldwide. However, thanks to several mechanisms, such as dialogue and understanding of common interests, these countries have almost eliminated war from the regional scenario, and Brazil has played a critical role. Peace negotiation is the most at this moment, and international support from everywhere is necessary to achieve peace.
Saúl M. Rodríguez, Ph.D. (c). University of Ottawa
Editor-in-chief. Magcondo.